Money Talks, Incumbents Run Unopposed, Democracy Suffers

John Frohnmayer, potential Independent candidate for Gordon Smith’s Senate seat halted his campaign Tuesday, pointing to the difficulty he faced in raising the money to be competitive in a statewide race. Once again, money talks, and talks so loudly it drowns out the voices who cannot afford the big megaphone. The money muscles flex early in the process. Primary elections for the major parties in Oregon favor the monied candidate in the May races.

All the major races in the Oregon primary election, except one, were won by the candidate who spent the most campaign money, including Barack Obama (President), Jeff Merkley (U.S. Senate), Mike Erickson (R-U.S. Congress), Kurt Schrader (D-U.S. Congress), and Kate Brown (D-Secretary of State). The only exception was the victory of John Kroger (Attorney General), who spent 4 percent less than the $817,000 reported by his opponent Greg Macpherson thus far.

Is this mere coincidence?

Merkley outspent second-place votegetter Steve Novick by over $1 million; Erickson outspent Kevin Mannix by over $1 million, Schrader outspent Marks by more than $150,000, Kate Brown outspent Rick Metsger by $200,000 and Vicki Walker by $478,000.

As for down-ballot state legislative races, the results of primaries are pretty clear, not just in Oregon but nationwide--the “secret” to victory in a legislative election is to be the incumbent!

In nearly every state, having one or both of these advantages (money or being in office) all but guarantees victory at the ballot box. According to the nonprofit Money in State Politics, of the 5292 legislative races in 2006, 92% were won by the office-holder and 87% were won by the money-race winner.

The study of 2006 legislative races nationwide shows that in 1/3 of all races the incumbent had no competition in the general election, and 1/4 had no opposition in the primary and the general.

Oregon is part of the same, undemocratic trend. In fact, it's even worse here. Incumbents rule: 33 out of Oregon's 75 legislative races have not drawn opposition for the November general election. This includes 8 out of 15 Oregon Senate races and 25 out of 60 races in the Oregon House.

Unless third parties nominate challengers, over 40% of Oregon’s Legislature will not be tested by a vigorous campaign this summer and fall.

And the money-race? The average contested state Senate race in 2006 cost the winner over $500,000. The average contested House race in 2006 cost the winner over $300,000.